Venezuela preparing to invade Colombia

[Aileron]

For those who haven't heard the story, on Sunday night, Colombia made a cross-border raid into Ecuador to take out a FARC camp. This group has made a pattern of attacking people in Colombia and hiding out accrossed the border in Ecuador. Then, this morning Hugo Chavez closed the Venezuelan Emb!@#$%^&*y in Colombia, ordered virtually Venezuela's entire military to gather on the Colombian border. If you want more details, do a google.

 

A quote from Chavez translates "We don't want war, but aren't going to permit the U.S. empire, which is the master (of Colombia)...to divide us."

A quote from Rafael Correa, president of Ecuador, who also vohemently opposed Colombia's action, said the FARC was "bombed and massacred as they slept, using precision technology."

 

Okay, now for my two cents. First off, Chavez should get a grip. This matter is between Colombia and Ecuador. There probably wasn't as much as two US tourists drinking tequila within 100 miles of wherever this decision took place. (And the counter in advance the accusation that the US was there in some sort of ultra-top secret fashion, based upon past behavior if the CIA were involved, half of the FARC camp would have gotten away and the world would know not only of their involvement but also would know the first names of every CIA agent involved.) Also, Chavez made criticism of Israel during his address. I think he needs to check his globe to find the relative locations of Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Israel. My geography may be rusty but if I recall Israel is nowhere near the location of the other three nations. I know Chavez hates the US and Israel, and loves Iran and North Korea, but not every action in the world is US related.

 

I also sincerely doubt that "We don't want war" quote. I think he was waiting for an excuse to pull this crap. A peace-loving nation would have probably talked about it, and wouldn't have taken such drastic action so quickly. Ofcourse you can't talk about it if you close your emb!@#$%^&*y mere hours after the offense, and the offense wasn't against Venezuela anyway.

 

 

 

As for Ecuador, yes, they have a right to be offended. Wars have started this way. However, they also need to apologize. They have allowed their country to become a safe haven for Colombian criminals, and they can't expect Colombia to take blow after blow indefinitely. To analyze Correa's quote, its wasn't the FARC that was sleeping. It was Ecuador's military that was sleeping. Their inability to keep those people out of their country created the situation where Colombia had to decide between respecting Ecuador's sovereignty and protecting their citizens. Colombia has repeatedly requested that Ecuador do something about this situation and they didn't. You reap what you sow, and when your country harbors criminals, you shouldn't be surprised when others need to invade your sovereignty to deal with them.

[SeVeR]

After listening to far too many right-wing propagandist statements, it appears that you are now making your own up.

 

Venezuela is "preparing to invade" Colombia?

 

That's news to me.

 

If in any of your news sources you have evidence of an intent to invade, then please come out with it. Otherwise i suggest you re-word the topic.

[Bak]

intelligence in the form of photos from space can drastically determine battles between countries such as these; the usa doesn't need to have troops or secret agents present in order to be of major influence.

[Aileron]

Okay, SeVeR, so I might have been exaggerating slightly. Clearly this is some sort of diplomatic game on Chavez' part, but "Venezuela masses up troops on the Colombian border in order to intimidate the Colombian government into being sorry for taking out FARC" is too long and boring to be a good topic !@#$%^&*le. Though an exaggeration, the truth still stands that Venezuela is currently mobilized to wage war on Colombia in a moment's notice.

 

Brinkmanship is almost a form of art to be used in certain cir!@#$%^&*stances and in a certain fashion. I mean, sure the US has done our fair share of Brinkmanship, and we've certainly used our military to intimidate other nations into doing something, but there is a right way and a wrong way to do it. If the US, UK, Soviet Union, and China had carried out brinkmanship in this matter during the Cold War, the world would have gone up in smoke. Mistakes Venezuela is making with the process:

 

1) They want nothing. Yes, they don't like what Colombia did Sunday night, but the point is they don't want anything out of Colombia now. The best way to describe this action is as a 'protest'. The problem is that brinkmanship risks wars, and the risks are simply to great to use military buildups as a response to a past action one doesn't like. If there is a present or future action you want them to do, that's different, but in this case all Chavez wants to do is apparently state that he doesn't like Colombia's recent action. Tanks are not an appropriate subs!@#$%^&*ution for exclamation points.

 

2) The cut off diplomacy. If they actually wanted something, they would need diplomats to tell the Colombians what they want. Even still, its best to keep both parties talking.

 

3) They didn't keep scale in mind. You don't need to mobilize your entire military over a small action. Only mobilize enough forces as the situation warrants. When you over-commit, you increase the odds of some accident happening leading to a war, and actually give yourself a less intimidating posture as you convince your opponent that you will make the same mistake on the battlefield.

 

4) They are creating a Mexican Stand-off which they aren't the winners of. Suppose things do go south. Colombia shoots Ecuador. Venezuela shoots Colombia. The UN shoots Venezuela. Colombia knows that Venezuela only stands to lose here.

 

 

I mean, you compare it to the Cuba Missile Crisis, and the differences are apparent. In the Cuba Missile Crisis, the US and USSR kept diplomatic ties working, rattled the sabers a little bit, and came up with a solution in which the US got something they wanted the and USSR got something they wanted, and overall the world became a safer place.

 

 

 

 

Bak, the US would still need an agent present to deliver the photos. As I pointed out though, the Colombian government fully has the motivation and resources. Also the action seems to be the brainchild of a military. It was quick, efficient, brutal, and put more attention to the mission than the political consequences. Its much more consistent with what you would expect out of the Colombian military rather than a civilian organization like the CIA, which would try to finesse things up to make the outcome more politically palatable.

 

The bigger issue is that it would be rational to surmise that because there is no evidence of US involvement, that there was no US involvement. Chavez shouldn't go around !@#$%^&*uming everything is a result of some US conspiracy just because he hates the US and he can concoct a scenario in which US involvement 'fits'. There is a medical name for that behavior. It's called "Paranoia".

 

 

 

Oh, and if Chavez does ANYTHING to affect the exportation of Colombian coffee, I'll drive down there deal with him myself. Nobody gets between a geek and his coffee.

[SeVeR]

How about: "Venezuela takes defensive posture after Colombian aggression"

 

This is surely closer to the truth. Colombia has made an aggressive move, and Venezuela has strengthened their defenses so that the same doesn't happen to them.

 

Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua are all in agreement about what Colombia has done.

 

So which headline would you go for: "Venezuela takes defensive posture" or "Venezuela prepares to invade"?

 

When France strengthened their Maginot line by deploying all their forces along the German border, what was their intent? When America deploys forces along the Mexican border, what is their intent: to invade Mexico or defend their border from illegals?

 

It's quite clear to me, it should be to you.

[Aileron]

Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua are all in agreement about what Colombia has done.

 

They are in agreement that they don't like what Colombia has done. They aren't all 'preparing for invasion' though.

 

Offensive/Defensive doesn't matter. This isn't baseball where offense and defense are independent of each other. On some level, defending yourself physically means destroying your attacker.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that Chavez is being paranoid. He sees Colombia take a small action to secure its border from what should be internal rebels, and now he is acting like Colombia, as part of the 'US Empire', is planning to invade and colonize his entire country. You can also couple this with some of his past statements, like how he claimed that US !@#$%^&*!@#$%^&*ins have been trying to kill him, and the 'paranoid' label seems to stick.

 

The comparison to the Maginot line and the Rio Grande fails this check. Those things were in response to large scale, empirically observed actions. Granted taking out a FARC camp is empirical action, but its small scale. The 'mounting Colombian aggression' isn't empirical, but would be of proper scale if it was. Nothing Colombia has done made both checks.

 

There's no difference between defensive and offensive styles of paranoia. Yes, in Chavez' mind he might be defending himself, but at this rate he might very well decide that the only way Venezuela will be safe is if he takes out Colombia. The pattern of paranoid behavior is to lash out at the perceived threat.

 

And generally, it is scary to think of an army being commanded in a manner consistent with mental illness.

[Bak]

"Bak, the US would still need an agent present to deliver the photos."

 

What? Internet + Encryption seems like it would work.

[Aileron]

I meant "need" in the practical sense, not a literal need. They could hand the Colombians their encryption codes and send it by email if they wanted to, but in reality they almost certainly don't do things that way.

 

The point is that the situation almost certainly isn't set up where Colombians are getting all the information off of US satellites automatically no questions asked. A US analyst would get the photos, and his superiors would have a meeting where they would decide if they wanted to give the photos to the Colombians and what they wanted the Colombians to do about it. Whatever the process is, people are involved with it, and it is human nature to meddle.

 

If the CIA had photos of this camp and wanted the Colombians to take it out, they would want the operation done their way. They would also send a couple of agents with the photos to observe and make sure it was done their way. They wouldn't need to literally, but it is a practical need.

 

(Kind of like how people "need" a driver's license. I mean, one could carve out an existence if they quit their job and lived off the land stealing food from their neighbors and such, but such a lifestyle is infeasible and thus driving becomes a practical need.)

 

Overall, nothing can get done without some level of human involvement, and where there is human involvement there is human influence.

[SeVeR]

I agree with you Aileron, it is a bit paranoid of Chavez, and he was obviously making a political statement by doing what he did.

 

You can keep saying offense/defense doesn't matter, when you were the one who implied an offensive intent from Venezuela. My post was merely a criticism of such an !@#$%^&*umption.