2008 Election Predictions

[Aileron]

You know, McCain is the only one of the three to have actually run against Bush in the past. Be careful about calling him "Bush 2.0".

 

 

To answer JDS' question: Right now McCain has clinched the Republican nomination, so he's running in November. Obama is currently leading the Democratic Primary by a significant margin. However, not by so much of a margin that Hillary can't win if everyone who hasn't voted yet votes for her. Her ace in the hole is Pennsylvania, the fourth biggest state in the country, and has a lot of delegates. Currently Hillary is leading in Pennsylvania and has an endorsement from Governor Ed Rendel. (Who has marginally more popularity in conservative districts as the Frankenstein monster when he was trapped in the burning windmill surrounded by angry villagers.) However, Obama is gaining popularity in PA.

 

 

The geography of PA is as follows: You have Pittsburgh in the west and Philadelphia in the east, who vote consistently democratic. In the center and northern portions of the state are the Pennsylvania "T", a region of conservative districts. Currently we have a governor who was the former mayor of Philadelphia with the nearly stated policy of robbing the rest of the state to finance benefits for Philadelphia, and between his overwhelming support in Philly* and the democrats in Pittsburgh who don't know any better, he can get away with it.

 

*He has a great initiative to encourage people voting...where the rest of the country has about 30% of people voting, Philadelphia has had voter turnout rates of 105% plus or minus 1%...the dead are literally rising from their graves to vote for Rendel.** Ofcourse no one would accuse someone as honorable as he of committing voter fraud. Democrats never would do such a thing.

 

**Okay, so that trick is old...The real scam seems to be using state money to finance buses which on election day take certain voters from district to district to district to vote multiple times fro Rendel during his elections. I do hope he tries this trick on the upcoming primary when everyone is watching and gets caught.

 

 

Long story short, right now Pennsylvania is being run in the same way as New York is being run - the state is being run by a large city which is getting kickbacks from the state at the expense of the rural districts and other cities, and we have a governor who is just like the Clintons in that he has questionable honesty, radical liberal authoritarian policies, and that look that makes me want to stock up on holy water, wooden stakes, garlic, and silver crosses.

 

I'd figure Obama's best chance is to try to focus on gaining Pittsburgh. There happens to be a lot of black people in Philly, but to be blunt, those people are Rendel's tools so they'll vote for Clinton. Obama's best chance will probably sit with democrats who are tired of the current party establishment.

[»Ducky]

massive college call outs around here in Pittsburgh for Obama. Almost the entirety of my personal friend base will be voting for him. Of everyone else I've had the pleasure of talking to however, it seems they are stuck on Hillary for whatever reason.

 

The Hillary attack on Obama about people in Pennsylvania (which obviously is taken out of context) seems to be part of the reason they will choose her. The sad thing is, Obama said something entirely true for once and people around me took it the wrong way.

They do cling to immigration and terrorism.

[AstroProdigy]

Well when he talked about talking to Iran in order to bring stability to Iraq he was similarly pounced on. Face it when a politician talks about what's actually wrong and what actually is needed to be done Americans are outraged. It's not even politicians refusing to tell the truth anymore. It's people in America not wanting to here the truth from politicians, but instead being content with the sugar coated lies they've been getting. I blame the teachers union for not letting the education system be fixed so people will stop getting dumber, but then again that's only one of many factors.

 

I still think McCain will end up screwing himself over even after all of Hillary's help. Iraq is starting to unravel and I think it's faster than Bush's cronies predicted it would. At the same time the mess we're getting deeper and deeper in is proving to be almost entirely caused by the deregulation that conservatives (and unfortunately some Democrats like Bill Clinton) created in the past and McCain is refusing to change his tune no matter how bad things look for fear of not looking conservative enough to prevent conservatives from defecting.

 

Aileron:

Don't bull!@#$%^&* me that New York City saps all the money from New York State. New York State is run by corrupt up-staters who recently stopped Bloomberg from getting federal funding for a congestion pricing plan because it would upset people not from New York City who use cars to get into Manhattan. They pretended it's to protect the boroughs from unfair pricing as well as non New York City areas, but everyone here knows only the richest people from the boroughs can afford to drive their cars into Manhattan and put them in expensive private parking while the vast majority take the subway who's prices will shoot up because of Albany doing the opposite of giving kickbacks to New York City.

 

New York City gets back 11 billion dollars less in state taxes than it gives that go right into funding rural districts and other cities upstate that wouldn't be sustainable as useless and corrupt as they are without New York City paying for it. If anything it's the rural areas of upstate that are getting kickbacks at the expense at the wealthier New York City and the surrounding counties that keep unproductive upstate afloat.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same in Pennsylvania, but you can't get past your longtime conservatism long enough to see it because cities there are filled with liberals, black people, and gays and that's not peachy with you. Rural areas and suburbs only survive by siphoning money away from the more productive cities in the form of taxes and considering the size of Philadelphia I'm sure the same is done in Pennsylvania.

 

liberal authoritarian policies

Okay I know you have some weird hatred for the Clintons, but if you ever decide to go buy a dictionary look up the worlds liberal and then authoritarian because they are antonyms and using oxymorons may make sense when you talk about freezer burn or deafening silence, but in this case it just makes your irrational hatred for the Clintons look silly.

Edited April 20, 2008 by AstroProdigy

[ThunderJam]

oh dear lord i was enjoying these forums without astro. Edited April 20, 2008 by ThunderJam

[AstroProdigy]

Too bad.

[FMBI]

I put together some maps using RCP's custom generator to show the three possible outcomes.

 

Likely Results:

 

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/6247/elec1ud4.jpg

 

McCain win:

 

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/6940/elec2gn8.png

 

This one relied on a lot of very unrealistic choices, just to get McCain over the top.

This !@#$%^&*umes no Independents are in the race, and also a reversal of momentum

for Obama.

 

Obama Landslide:

 

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/840/elec3ez2.png

 

This one !@#$%^&*umes that Barr continues to gain strength, McCain continues to flounder, and McKinney doesn't hurt Obama that much.

 

Both Texas and Georgia (the most unlikely ones for him to win) are within 10 points barring Independents, and, at the current time, when Independents are included Obama polls within a few points of McCain.

Arizona is another that is rather surprising at first glance, but it's actually a close match.

Montana and North Dakota are both fairly supportive of Libertarian ideals, and Obama's close anyway - I'd say Montana's guaranteed, but North Dakota's a good bet.

Missouri and Florida are close to tipping point, and I've read that Florida's seeing a major boost in new Democratic registrations, which in my view, lands it in the Obama wish-list under ordinary conditions, and in the win column when you add Barr.

I could have thrown Mississippi in, but I believe that his "black advantage," to use a rude term, will be counteracted by the poor and heavily rural nature of the state. He's also 12 points behind at last glance, and Barr is unlikely to have any effect in that particular state.

 

 

The third choice is actually more believable than the second, unless something major (such as a terrorist attack, or a Bush-organized terror-level jerking campaign ) occurs within the next 3 months. It'd certainly be a little surprising to see the Lone Star state secede from Jesusland, but you never know. Personally, I'd put my money on somewhere between the Likely and the Obama Landslide options, because he could swing potentially swing Florida or North Carolina in any case. Still, not a very uplifting message for McCain, overall.

 

 

edit - Fixed.

Edited July 23, 2008 by Finland My BorgInvasion

[darkhosis]

I put together some maps using RCP's custom generator to show the three possible outcomes.

 

Likely Results:

 

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/6247/elec1ud4.jpg

 

McCain win:

 

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/6940/elec2gn8.png

 

This one relied on a lot of very unrealistic choices, just to get McCain over the top.

This !@#$%^&*umes no Independents are in the race, and also gives McCain Iowa to

ensure an otherwise next-to-impossible win.

 

Obama Landslide:

 

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/840/elec3ez2.png

 

This one !@#$%^&*umes that Barr continues to gain strength, McCain continues to flounder, and McKinney doesn't hurt Obama that much.

 

Both Texas and Georgia (the most unlikely ones for him to win) are within 10 points barring Independents, and, at the current time, when Independents are included Obama polls within a few points of McCain.

Arizona is another that is rather surprising at first glance, but it's actually a close match.

Montana and North Dakota are both fairly supportive of Libertarian ideals, and Obama's close anyway - I'd say Montana's guaranteed, but North Dakota's a good bet.

Missouri and Florida are close to tipping point, and I've read that Florida's seeing a major boost in new Democratic registrations, which in my view, lands it in the Obama wish-list under ordinary conditions, and in the win column when you add Barr.

I could have thrown Mississippi in, but I believe that his "black advantage," to use a rude term, will be counteracted by the poor and heavily rural nature of the state. He's also 12 points behind at last glance, and Barr is unlikely to have any effect in that particular state.

 

 

The third choice is actually more believable than the second, unless something major (such as a terrorist attack, or a Bush-organized terror-level jerking campaign ) occurs within the next 3 months. It'd certainly be a little surprising to see the Lone Star state secede from Jesusland, but you never know. Personally, I'd put my money on somewhere between the Likely and the Obama Landslide options, because he could swing potentially swing Florida or North Carolina in any case. Still, not a very uplifting message for McCain, overall.

#2 looks more realistic to me, except it has colorado, iowa, and new hampshire in the wrong colors

 

and some !@#$%^&* in light vs dark and vice versa

 

btw, iowa is "IA" and was colored blue.. which made me do a double take, since you said that it gave Mccain Iowa.. it actually doesnt, but it should.

Edited July 23, 2008 by darkhosis

[FMBI]

That is exceptionally odd, but now that I think of it, I know why I did that. Had to try it two or three different times, because my browser crashed, and I probably ended up giving him the wrong state somewhere else. Oh well.

 

And, just so you know, #2 is virtually impossible, because, as I said, it !@#$%^&*umes no Independents - basically, if Barr's in, McCain's out. He has no way of winning either the "leave us alone" states or the 50-50 split states unless he takes Obama on without any outside interference.

 

Edit - And, although I still concede my mistake, Iowa is definitely going blue this year.

 

Second edit - The light/dark doesn't really matter this year, because all of the states are going to be very close. I don't think there are any outside of the traditional stomping-grounds that are guaranteed to be big (10%+) wins. So, Lousiana and New York might be dark blue, but not very much else is.

Edited July 23, 2008 by Finland My BorgInvasion

[rootbear75]

It's time for campaigning!

 

adc3MSS5Ydchttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adc3MSS5Ydc

[FMBI]

Well, the last few weeks have been interesting. McCain's been running a vicious, stupid, and lying campaign, and the media's still acting like he deserves respect. When will people learn that the kind of campaign you run is indicative of the kind of presidency you're going to hold? :\